Solid Passenger Demand Growth in April
- European airlines’ April traffic increased 8.0% compared to the year-ago period, up from 4.9% annual growth in March. While this represented the strongest monthly growth since December, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, RPKs have only risen by 1% since November 2018, suggesting the global economic and trade backdrop – along with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit – is impacting demand. Capacity rose 6.6% and load factor surged 1.1 percentage points to 85.7%, highest among the regions.
- Asia-Pacific carriers posted a 2.9% traffic rise in April, up from 2% growth in March but well below the long-term average. Capacity climbed 3.7% and load factor dropped 0.6 percentage point to 80.8%. Asia-Pacific was the only region to experience a decline in load factor compared to the same month a year ago. Results largely reflect the slowdown in global trade, including the impact from the China-US trade tensions on the broader region, which continue to weigh on passenger demand.
- Middle East carriers saw demand rise 2.9% in April, which was a recovery from a 3.0% decline in traffic in March. Notwithstanding the monthly turnaround, in seasonally-adjusted terms the downward trend in traffic growth continues, reflecting broader structural changes affecting the industry in the region. Capacity fell 1.6% and load factor soared 3.5 percentage points to 80.5%.
- North American airlines posted a 5.5% demand increase compared to April 2018, which was up from 3.2% year-over-year growth in March. A strong domestic economy, low unemployment and a strong dollar are offsetting any impacts from current trade tensions. Capacity climbed 3.2%, and load factor rose 1.8 percentage points to 82.2%.
- Latin American airlines experienced a 5.2% rise in April demand compared to the same month last year, slightly up on 4.9% growth in March. Capacity increased by 4.0% and load factor edged up 0.9 percentage point to 82.8%. The strong results are occurring against a backdrop of economic and political uncertainty in some key regional economies. Strong South-North traffic flows may be supporting demand growth.
- African airlines had a 1.1% traffic increase in April, which was down from 1.6% growth in March and was the slowest regional growth since early 2015. Like Latin America, Africa is seeing some economic and political uncertainty in the largest markets. Capacity climbed 0.1%, and load factor edged up 0.7 percentage point to 72.6%.
- China’s domestic traffic increased 3.4% in April, up from 2.8% in March, but still well below the 2016-2018 period when growth averaged around 12%, reflecting the impact of the US-China trade dispute and softening in a number of economic indicators.
- India’s airlines’ traffic actually fell 0.5% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of the shut-down of Jet Airways. This marked the first time in six years that monthly domestic traffic declined compared to the year-ago period.
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