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The Oil Gusher #411: 2H20 watch-list: Upcoming catalysts to take us into 2021 - BofA

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EMEA Equity Research Daily Highlights

BofA Global Research Media Relations

 

United Arab Emirates,  September 13, 2020:  Refer to important disclosures at the end of these reports (see links below). Please note, you may quote directly from this research report solely in your reporting as a member of the media; however all quotes must be cited as having come from a BofA Global Research report. All other copying, redistribution, retransmission, republication and any other unauthorized dissemination or use of the contents of the report or the link thereto are prohibited. If you are interested in interviewing an analyst, your request must be directed to Research Communications & Media Relations.

EMEA Equity Research Daily Highlights

Anglo American: Diamonds (finally) inflect; Reiterate BUY

Vodafone Group: H1 headwinds

The Oil Gusher #411: 2H20 watch-list: Upcoming catalysts to take us into 2021

Informa: Increasingly “vigilant”, but still bullish

Dufry: PE involvement in rights issue

SCOR: Ready and raring for renewals season; upgrading estimates and PO

 

EMEA Equity Research Daily Highlights

  Anglo American: Diamonds (finally) inflect; Reiterate BUY


•  It appears that the diamond market is now 'open' after several months of limited sales. Early days, but a 'turn' is positive.
•  DeBeers reported its 7th sales cycle at $320 mn, nearly 3x cycle 6 and up +11% on 2019. Alrosa also reported strong sales.
•  We see diamonds as an 'at the money' option for Anglo American. Maintain BUY, price objective GBp2400.
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  Vodafone Group: H1 headwinds


•  VOD at an attractive entry point post underperformance, but H1 results are unlikely to be a catalyst due to seasonal phasing.
•  Peak roaming, Italy comps weigh on Q2, -60bps QoQ to -1.9% service rev growth. H1 EBITDA -3.2% lags FY outlook, but H2 +0.4%.
•  Fundamentals intact: strong cash flow generation, improving mix, well covered divi and inorganic deleverage tailwinds. Buy.
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  The Oil Gusher #411: 2H20 watch-list: Upcoming catalysts to take us into 2021


•  With 1H20 marking generational milestones in the O&G sector, we look forward to quieter months to year-end, centred around...
•  ...more catalysts showcasing the sector's accelerating shift to Big Energy:
•  We outline our expectations for upcoming catalysts (CMDs, key projects & pipelines) core to Europe's oil & gas equity stories
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  Informa: Increasingly “vigilant”, but still bullish


•  We continue to like INF shares (PO 630p) into the 1H update (21/9 as we expect positive news on 1) Chinese trading,
•  2) Cost cutting, 3) Liquidity & 4) steady trends in non-Events units. Negatives are 1) US$ weakness, 2) Non-Chinese Events
•  but this seems priced in. Events are valued at 5x '19 EV/EBITA and Informa overall is at a 25% discount to pre COVID levels.
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  Dufry: PE involvement in rights issue


•  Dufry have announced its previously announced rights issue will be for 500m CHF. Larger than expected; opportunistic given...
•  ... Advent International have committed to 415m CHF investment. Existing shareholders priority, Advent to take surplus
•  Advent getting seat on the board. All to be approved 6 Oct EGM. Liquidity strong, valuation still depressed. Reit Buy. 55 PO.
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  SCOR: Ready and raring for renewals season; upgrading estimates and PO


•  SCOR delivered a positive update at its 2020 investor day; we upgrade our outer year est's to reflect bullish P&C ambitions
•  SCOR has confirmed the end of its P&C pruning, providing a clean base for growth. A positive Life update should also reassure
•  Our PO rises 7% to EUR 37 suggesting 57% total return potential. SCOR is our preferred reinsurance pick; reiterate Buy


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