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  Luxury Goods: Swiss Watch Industry: 3Q exports -10% and a slow recovery ahead

•  We estimate SWE declined by -10% in Q3, after adjusting for FX and number of trading days. Sept was -11% FX & days adj
•  Volumes continued to underperform value. Greater China positive in Q3, US flat, ROW very tough.
•  We think Rolex, PP and AP continue to dominate, making it more difficult for CFR/UHR to recover. We reiterate our U/P ratings